Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.273532 0.316627 0.363582 0.418444 0.480690 0.549015 0.629592
2025-06-29 0.197779 0.250914 0.313601 0.392666 0.489345 0.603308 0.747382
2025-07-06 0.145356 0.201341 0.272575 0.369077 0.495500 0.654475 0.868353
2025-07-13 0.116040 0.174717 0.254875 0.370910 0.532807 0.748607 1.055479
2025-07-20 0.090773 0.148454 0.232946 0.363371 0.556639 0.828820 1.236414
2025-07-27 0.073875 0.130807 0.219933 0.366072 0.595068 0.934241 1.466570
2025-08-03 0.061079 0.116804 0.209788 0.371236 0.637819 1.051554 1.729511
2025-08-10 0.047234 0.097844 0.188020 0.353976 0.642797 1.112357 1.915168
2025-08-17 0.035887 0.080596 0.165669 0.331515 0.635374 1.152097 2.072283
2025-08-24 0.028767 0.069739 0.152657 0.323155 0.650605 1.230622 2.302098
2025-08-31 0.023160 0.060553 0.140927 0.314949 0.664590 1.308353 2.539379
2025-09-07 0.019855 0.055630 0.136853 0.321058 0.706316 1.440301 2.886988
2025-09-14 0.015443 0.046948 0.123199 0.305651 0.705187 1.496464 3.110228
2025-09-21 0.012360 0.040686 0.113596 0.297199 0.717062 1.579299 3.394421
2025-09-28 0.009812 0.035016 0.104045 0.286947 0.723477 1.652306 3.668785
2025-10-05 0.008512 0.032594 0.102169 0.294701 0.771125 1.815471 4.141767
2025-10-12 0.007091 0.029266 0.097052 0.293346 0.797625 1.937431 4.544065
2025-10-19 0.006136 0.027161 0.094871 0.299262 0.842515 2.104821 5.060558
2025-10-26 0.005358 0.025393 0.093253 0.306431 0.891698 2.287662 5.629851
2025-11-02 0.004259 0.021899 0.085311 0.294022 0.888964 2.351414 5.943170
2025-11-09 0.003284 0.018421 0.076357 0.276548 0.869811 2.373971 6.165589
2025-11-16 0.002690 0.016320 0.071502 0.270575 0.881009 2.471065 6.570813
2025-11-23 0.002200 0.014453 0.066918 0.264422 0.890671 2.565439 6.979347